| Year | Winning Party |
|---|---|
| 1972 | ALP |
| 1974 | ALP |
| 1975 | LIB |
| 1977 | LIB |
| 1980 | LIB |
| 1983 | ALP |
| 1984 | ALP |
| 1987 | ALP |
| 1990 | ALP |
| 1993 | ALP |
| 1996 | LIB |
| 1998 | LIB |
| 2001 | LIB |
| 2004 | LIB |
| 2007 | ALP |
| 2010 | ALP |
| 2013 | LIB |
| 2016 | ALP |
| 2019 | ALP |
- - the party's candidate in 2019, Kotvojs has a farm at Dignams Creek near Cobargo, is a former teacher with a doctorate in education, and has been a director of Oxfam Australia since 2012. She is described in some papers as a beef farmer, by others as a truffle farmer.
- - from Bungendore and a councillor on Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council. He is a defence department director, a position he will have to resign from before nominating if pre-selected by the Liberal Party.
- Reading down the ballot paper, voters will still see Kristy McBain (Labor) before Fiona Kotvojs (Liberal). There are a small number of people who might vote for the first name they recognise.
- The preference drift. People voting for minor parties at some point have to number the rest of the ballot paper, and filling in the rest of the squares top to bottom is the easiest way to do it without making errors. This favours Labor. There is little evidence of people numbering up the ballot paper.
- The small number of genuine donkey voters will favour Labor by numbering top to bottom.
| Candidate Name | Party |
|---|---|
| STADTMILLER, Matthew | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
| JANSSON, James | Science Party |
| BALDERSTONE, Michael | Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party |
| HOLGATE, James | Independent |
| HICKS, Trevor | The Nationals |
| McCRAE, Dean | Liberal Democrats |
| ANGEL, Joy | Sustainable Australia - Stop Overdevelopment, Stop Corruption |
| McBAIN, Kristy | Labor |
| BOSI, Riccardo | Independent |
| PORTER, Karen | Independent |
| GRIFF, Cathy | The Greens |
| STOREY, Narelle | Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) |
| POTTER, Jason | Australian Federation Party |
| KOTVOJS, Fiona | Liberal |
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Kelly | ALP | 38,878 | 39.17 | -2.71 |
| Fiona Kotvojs | LIB | 36,732 | 37.01 | -4.33 |
| Pat McGinlay | GRN | 8,715 | 8.78 | +1.18 |
| David Sheldon | IND | 2,247 | 2.26 | +2.26 |
| Sophie Wade | NAT | 6,899 | 6.95 | +6.95 |
| Thomas Harris | CDP | 1,157 | 1.17 | -0.70 |
| Chandra Singh | UAP | 2,748 | 2.77 | +2.77 |
| James Holgate | IND | 1,883 | 1.90 | +1.90 |
| ... | OTH | .. | 0.0 | -7.32 |
| Mike Kelly | ALP | 50,472 | 50.85 | -2.08 |
| Fiona Kotvojs | LIB | 48,787 | 49.15 | +2.08 |
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