- - Labor could lose 11 seats to the Coalition and still retain majority government, assuming no gains by the crossbench.
- - the Coalition need to gain 18 seats from Labor for majority government, assuming no changes on the crossbench.
- - if the Coalition gain 15 seats from Labor, they would finish with more seats, again assuming no change on the crossbench.
- - Labor and the Greens hold a combined 59 seats. Even if the Greens take seats from Labor, it will take a combined loss of 14 seats for the two parties to lose their majority.
- - If Labor loses seats to the Greens or Independents, then the swing for Labor to lose its overall majority is less than 7.1%. Losses to independents would also reduce the swing needed to deprive Labor and the Greens of a joint majority. Every seat the Coalition loses to an Independent or Green increases the swing meeded for the Coalition to achieve majority government or finish with more seats than Labor.
Party (Candidates) |
Votes |
% Votes |
Swing |
Seats Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor Party (88) | 1,506,460 | 42.86 | +4.77 | 55 |
| Liberal Party (80) | 1,069,287 | 30.43 | -6.04 | 21 |
| The Nationals (10) | 167,625 | 4.77 | -0.76 | 6 |
| Greens (88) | 376,470 | 10.71 | -0.77 | 3 |
| Independents (98) | 211,700 | 6.02 | +2.72 | 3 |
| Animal Justice (43) | 63,970 | 1.82 | +1.59 | .. |
| Others (100) | 118,962 | 3.39 | -1.51 | .. |
| Formal (507) | 3,514,474 | 94.17 | ||
| Informal | 217,592 | 5.83 | +0.61 | |
| Total Votes / Turnout | 3,732,066 | 90.16 | -2.86 | |
| Enrolment | 4,139,326 | |||
| Labor | 2,025,669 | 57.6 | +5.6 | |
| Coalition | 1,490,103 | 42.4 | -5.6 | |
- Labor gained six seats from the Liberals in Melbourne's east - Bayswater, Box Hill, Burwood, Hawthorn, Mount Waverley and Ringwood.
- Labor also gained Bass on Melbourne's outer south-east fringe, Nepean on the tip of the Mornington Peninsula, and South Barwon based on southern Geelong and the Surf Coast.
- In a swap of seats, Labor lost Brunswick to the Greens but regained neighbouring Northcote, lost by Labor at a November 2017 by-election.
- Independent Ali Cupper defeated the Nationals in Mildura.
- Originally elected as a National Party candidate, Russell Northe was re-elected contesting his seat of Morwell as an Independent.
is the state's second smallest electorate at just 12.5 square kilometres and takes in Clifton Hill, Fitzroy, Collingwood, Abbotsford, Richmond, Cremorne and Burnley. Labor has scrambled to victory over the Greens in Richmond for the last two decades, but will be disadvantaged in 2022 by the retirement of long serving MP Richard Wynne. The new Labor candidate is Lauren O'Dwyer, while the Greens' candidate is Yarra City Councillor Gabrielle de Vietri. The Liberal Party did not contest Richmond in 2018 and the party's candidate in 2022 is Lucas Moon. This will be a tough seat for Labor to hold.
- 17 November - update after close of nominations and announcements on preferences
- 4 November - complete re-write along with completion and re-arranagment of the seats to watch list.
- 19 October - more detailed introduction and background added along with most of the seats to watch section
- 7 October 2022 - first published