| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | IND | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Election result | 55 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| VEC party seat totals | 58 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| ABC party seat totals | 56 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
- - (old margin LIB 0.3%) has undergone some minor boundary adjustments. The VEC estimates that Caufield now has a Labor majority of 0.16%, about 64 votes. Based on its own estimates, the ABC will classify the new Caufield (LIB 0.04%) as Liberal held. This simplifies analysing Caufield on election night given Liberal Deputy Leader David Southwick currently represents the seat.
- - (old margin LIB 1.1%) has also undergone boundary changes and the VEC calculates the re-drawn seat has a notional Labor margin of 0.01%. That's about nine votes. While Liberal MP Neale Burgess is retiring, the ABC has retained Hastings (LIB 0.0%) as a Liberal seat with no margin. That means the result in Hastings will display as "Labor gain" or "Liberal retain" rather than "Labor retain" or "Liberal gain".
- M - (old margin IND 0.3% v NAT) has seen an area around Donald added to the electorate which Independent Ali Cupper did not contest in 2018. The VEC has calculated a new margin for the seat that would put the National Party ahead. However, such calculations ignore how the Independent could poll in the new area. The ABC has chosen to categorise Mildura as Independent held with no margin. This makes more sense given there is a sitting Independent MLA.
- has been abolished and merged with creating a notionally Liberal seat in the . The new Bayswater will be contested by the sitting MPs from both former seats, Labor’s Jackson Taylor from Bayswater and Liberal Nick Wakeling from Ferntree Gully.
- In eastern Melbourne, and have been abolished and largely replaced by the new seat of . Ashwood will be contested by Labor’s MP for Mount Waverley Matt Fregon, while Burwood’s Will Fowles is contesting Ringwood in place of the retiring Dustin Halse.
- Also in Melbourne’s east, has been merged with parts of abolished Mount Waverley (see Ashwood above) to create the new seat of . Forest Hill Liberal MP Neil Angus will contest Glen Waverley.
- On Melbourne’s outer south-east fringe, three seats have been formed from the abolished seat of and surplus votes from the over-quota . The new seats are and , while the new boundaries transform into a notional Liberal seat. Gembrook Liberal MP Brad Battin will contest Berwick, Bass Labor MP Jordan Crugnale will re-contest Bass, while Pakenham will have no sitting MP
- In western Victoria, a redistribution has caused to flip allegiances, the having a notional Labor majority. Liberal MP Louise Staley will re-contest her seat.
- In Eastern Victoria, now includes Moe, significantly increasing Labor's vote. Given Independent MP Russell Northe is retiring, the n has been classed as Labor held using the alternative two-party preferred results from 2018.
- The Melbourne's south-east, has been and divided between surrounding electorates. Labor MP Martin Pakula will retire
- West of the Yarra, the very safe Labor seat of on Melbourne’s north-west fringe has been . It has been divided into two equally safe Labor seats, and . A new seat called has also been created straddling Wyndham and Brimbank councils. The electorate of has shifted south and been re-named .
- 31 October - removed from the election preview and published as a separate page.